Bona fide

The early frontrunner in Pacitalia’s archonal election is someone you’ve probably never heard of – unless you’re Catholic

The campaign to become the Pacitalian Republic’s next head of state has begun in earnest, following a veritable flurry of candidate announcements last month.

This year’s election cycle began with lawyer and former Antigonian regional president Maria Bosa’s entry into the race for the Federation of Progressive Democrats at the end of March. Since then, nine other candidates have jumped into secure their respective parties’ nomination, with more most certainly on the way.

The early frontrunner is a political outsider whose background is not the typical businessman, lawyer, or career politician seeking a promotion to the country’s top job. But his obvious, well-honed fundraising chops, natural charisma, and moderate positions are putting potential rivals on notice.

Preacher Abeo Bamidele, who, a decade ago, founded the “Resurrection, Rebirth and Renewal” Church in the southern Pacitalian city of Capagatta, launched his campaign to win the Christian Democrats’ nomination on 14th April, in front of a sellout crowd of nearly 20,000 at the city’s main indoor arena.

Though known as a prominent Christian voice in Pacitalia, whose livestreamed sermons regularly pull millions of viewers around the world, the turnout for his campaign launch took even the most seasoned pundits by surprise. His entry into the race, and his strong start, has upended what many expected would be a drowsy first month or two on the campaign calendar.

The 51-year-old Mr Bamidele immigrated to Pacitalia in 2003, in the midst of a first wave of migration to Foringana from the African continent. Immigrants have settled in Pacitalia, Scandonia and Medovicia, and the continent’s Black population has grown at what seems like an exponential pace in the past 20 years.

Indeed, Pacitalia, largely homogenous (white) at the turn of the 21st century, counted fewer than 50,000 people of African or Caribbean descent in the 2000 census. By 2010, that had increased at a healthy clip, to over 800,000. Ten years later, in 2020, however, the census showed the “Afro-Pacitalian” community cresting 12 million – just under three percent of the total population. And while there are now a handful of Black lawmakers traversing the halls of power across the country, and a generation of Black people born in Pacitalia to their migrant parents who are about to come of age, the election of a Black man to the country’s highest office would be profound and historic.

Mr Bamidele has staked out a curious position for a would-be standard bearer of the right. On paper, he is a fiscal and social conservative, who fits neatly into the mold of a traditional Christian democrat. He argued for a shrinking of the size of government, reasonable taxation, and a strong social safety net. He has called for an end to “polarizing” debates that “drive hatred and misunderstanding”, and a “re-centering” of the public around faith, with the usual guardrails to separate church and state. Nothing particularly earth-shattering.

But as a devout and often rigid Roman Catholic who has historically followed a rather literal interpretation of scripture, could there be at least some bleeding together of the views of Mr Bamidele the person and Mr Bamidele the (would-be) politician? It appears not.

While he is opposed to same-sex marriage, and would personally favour restricting or banning abortion and medically-assisted dying, Mr Bamidele has unequivocally declared he would not reopen any of those debates while in office, saying he considers the issues “settled”. He has already tried to further reassure moderates who might consider voting for him in November, who are wary of so-called culture war politics, that he “would not want to see any legislation around these issues coming to [his] desk” should he become archonate. Instead, he says he simply wants Christianity, and faith in general, to be a unifying force for good, a positive thing that people can rally around.

“There is room for God and God’s love in our lives if we open our hearts to that,” he said at his launch event. “There is room for empathy and understanding, even when we don’t agree.”

It’s the kind of comforting, almost statesmanly language that some on the right point to as an example of Mr Bamidele’s fitness to lead.

“I think he is the one to beat,” former deputy prime minister Nikos Karagounis said on a PBC News panel last week. “Everyone that I have talked to starts off curious about him, then they get to know him and hear him speak, and they are immediately drawn to him. That’s the kind of magnetism a real leader needs to have. He has what it takes.”

Speaking on a panel at a leadership conference a couple of weeks ago, Senator Giovanna Cazunobari said of Mr Bamidele: “There is going to be a natural coalescing around a single candidate as this election goes on, not just because campaigns are expensive… but because eventually those on the centre-right are going to do what they always do and realize that there are only a few paths to defeating whoever wins the PSDC nomination.”

“If anyone is going to be able to harness that and put it to work for themselves, it’s someone like [Abeo],” Ms Cazunobari added.

What’s remarkable about both politicians’ comments is that neither of them are members of the same party as Mr Bamidele. Both are longtime Federation of Progressive Democrats party stalwarts, and both would be considered political moderates. The fact that they are speaking so glowingly of the candidacy of someone in a completely different party from their own says a fair bit about what they think of the FPD’s chances this election cycle.

Running a national campaign is expensive and often prohibitive. Some parties, such as the far-right Franciscan Front, have already declined to run a candidate, instead choosing to endorse another party’s selection and focus their limited financial resources on fighting a parliamentary election campaign that will be running in parallel. In the 2017 archonal election, the cost of the campaigns of the FPD’s Archetenia Nera and the Pacitalian Social Democratic Congress’ Vittoria Agradossa shattered previous records, with each spending over Ð 250 million ($705 million).

But for some parties, like the FPD, this election cycle serves as another potential reckoning as they brace for yet more judgment in the eyes of scandal-weary voters. Last month, the party’s leader, Enzo Figo, was forced to step down after being charged with two counts of murder in the February deaths of his wife and a sex worker. It was a horrific crime that, naturally, generated widespread outrage and condemnation.

Mr Figo – widely liked and considered a competent and charismatic figure in his own right – had been on the job just over six months, and the party had hoped that, after years of a revolving door in the FPD leadership, he could steer the “natural governing party” back to power and move it beyond its recent era of darkness. Instead, his deputy, Dominic de Brincat, is left to try to prevent the party’s complete disintegration this autumn.

For the Christian Democrats, the selection of Mr Bamidele would provide them their own opportunity to turn the page. Their last archonal candidate in the annulled 2016 election, and the re-do the following year, was controversial industrialist and billionaire Carmine Bello.

The only thing Mr Bello and Mr Bamidele have in common is their devout Catholic faith. In contrast, Mr Bello was equal parts insufferable nationalist and warmongering sycophant, who thrived on insulting large chunks of the electorate. He was polarizing – brash and bigoted. Mr Bello was also found to have played a central role in the lanchi bruttare (“Dirty Fingers”) scandal that ensnared hundreds of politicians and prominent private sector figures. Therefore, had Mr Bello won the archonacy, he might have had to resign in disgrace, or, equally likely, would have driven the country into a constitutional crisis and brought the Christian Democrats down with him.

Mr Bello instead became a central figure in nationwide riots and disorderly conduct by his supporters following the 2017 election, in which he was bounced in the first round after leading polls for much of the campaign. His claims the election was rigged spurred violence and destruction of property. He fled prosecution after being charged with incitement and sedition, eventually committing suicide the next year, as authorities closed in.

Mr Bamidele leads early polling, with 31 percent of likely voters supporting him. It’s a healthy number that is much higher than levels reached by other prominent candidates at this point in previous election campaigns, and it is putting other parties on notice that he may prove to be an immovable force.

By comparison, the PSDC’s Sorinel Vulpes, former interior minister, sits at 20 percent, while the party’s 2016 candidate, Franco Russo, who spent six years as the governor of the country’s central bank, is at nine percent.

Early fundraising numbers also point to a steep hill to climb for Mr Bamidele’s opponents. He is already nearing Ð 10-million raised after only a couple of weeks of campaigning, and there is no sign that the pace of contributions is slowing. eDemocrats party leader Marco Arancella, who has decided to run for archonate instead of seeking a seat in parliament, is second in fundraising as of the end of April, sitting at just over Ð 6-million.

But it’s taken Mr Arancella nearly a month to get there, further highlighting just how effective Mr Bamidele might be at filling his campaign war chest over the next few months. Mr Bamidele’s only competition so far for the Christian Democrats’ nomination, Sambuca mayor Marco Merazzi, has been a powerhouse in his own right, snaring over Ð 5-million in contributions. (Incidentally, Mr Merazzi is the candidate the Franciscan Front have lent their support rather than Mr Bamidele.)

Mr Russo has raised Ð 4.4-million, while Ms Vulpes has brought in Ð 2.9-million, according to Elections Pacitalia disclosures. Ms Bosa’s contributions topped Ð 3-million just before the end of April.

For the first time, Pacitalians will all vote in a “primary election” on the same day – 21st August – after a tightening of the Elections Act passed last year by the Moya government. Voters can no longer be members of more than one political party at a time.

In previous elections, parties were left to hold their so-called primaries at their choosing, creating a loophole where voters could effectively switch party registrations multiple times to try to help their preferred candidates win their respective nominations – creating the possibility that some parties’ primary processes were being sabotaged to nominate “unelectable” candidates.

The archonate is effectively the Pacitalian equivalent of a president. It is a hybrid, and somewhat unique, mélange of ceremonial duties and codified authority. The role is a reflection of Pacitalia’s deep self-identification with its ancient Roman pedigree. The archonate is constitutionally primus inter pares (“first among equals”) but is checked and balanced by both a powerful parliament and an independent judiciary.

The archonate is the commander-in-chief of Pacitalia’s armed forces and can declare a state of war with parliamentary approval. They are the top Pacitalian diplomat and most often represent the republic abroad on state visits, rather than the foreign minister, who is part of the prime minister’s executive council (or cabinet). The archonate also has the ability to seat and dissolve parliament, appoint a prime minister, sign legislation into law or veto it, call referendums, and appoint magistrates to the court.